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The Cairns 2025-2026 Wet Season in Review: A Tale of Two Halves and a Looming El Niño
Author: Chris Nitsopoulos
Posted on: Monday, May 25th, 2026, 8:32:13 AM
Welcome to our comprehensive wrap-up of the 2025–2026 wet season in Cairns. After months of high humidity, torrential downpours, and the ever-present threat of tropical lows, the monsoon trough has finally retreated north, making way for the crisp Southeast Trade Winds.
Drawing from official Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) observation data and local weather tracking, we have put together a complete month-by-month breakdown of how this wet season played out, along with a crucial 6-to-12-month outlook for the Wet Tropics as a potentially severe El Niño takes shape in the Pacific.
Overall Season Summary
The 2025-2026 wet season (October to April) delivered a solid 2091.6 mm of rain to Cairns. This sits comfortably above the long-term historical average for the October-April period (approx. 1796 mm). However, the rainfall was far from evenly distributed. We experienced a sluggish start through spring (september exception), a very wet mid-summer, a surprising lull in February, and a massive, finish in March.
Here is the month-by-month breakdown.
October 2025: The Build-up Begins
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Total Rainfall: 49.6 mm (Near Average)
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Highest Temperature: 32.6°C (Oct 12)
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Significant Events: October was largely characterized by classic "Build-up" conditions. A notable Southeast wind surge hit early in the month, bringing gusts of up to 54 km/h on October 4th and 5th. A late-month thunderstorm on October 30th dropped 24.2 mm, providing brief relief from the sticky conditions.
November 2025: A Dry and Searing Spring
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Total Rainfall: 55.0 mm (Below Average)
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Highest Temperature: 34.6°C (Nov 28)
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Significant Events: The true monsoon as normal remained frustratingly non existent but the heat build-up was anything but non existent. While we traditionally expect around 88 mm of rain in November, Cairns only scraped together 55 mm from a lucky couple of storms. Temperatures soared late in the month, peaking at a sweltering 34.6°C on the 28th, accompanied by high humidity that kept air conditioners working overtime. The most significant rain fell during a localized thunderstorm on November 18 (26.6 mm).
December 2025: The Monsoon Awakens
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Total Rainfall: 309.0 mm (Above Average)
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Highest Temperature: 35.1°C (Dec 2)
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Significant Events: December brought the heat and finally, the rain. Early December saw blistering temperatures, peaking at 35.1°C on December 2nd, followed by an intense squall on December 3rd that brought wind gusts of 61 km/h. As we moved past mid-month, a monsoon pulse developed. A heavy deluge on December 18 dumped 73.2 mm, and another significant system right before the New Year (Dec 30) delivered 66.0 mm, thoroughly greening the region for the holidays.
January 2026: The Big Wet Arrives
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Total Rainfall: 565.4 mm (Well Above Average)
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Highest Temperature: 34.6°C (Jan 13 & 16)
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Significant Events: January was relentlessly wet, delivering over half a metre of rain. A persistent tropical low / monsoon trough hovered over the Far North coast for weeks. Strong southeasterly squalls battered the coast on January 9th, with gusts up to 70 km/h. The peak of the rain arrived on January 18, with a massive 108.6 mm falling in a single 24-hour period, leading to localized flash flooding across the Northern Beaches and localized road closures.
January 2026: Enter Cyclone Koji The primary driver of large scale rainfall in the region was Tropical Cyclone Koji.
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The Build-up: Koji formed as a tropical low (12U) in the northern Coral Sea on January 7. As it developed into a broad Category 2 system, its wind field expanded massively.
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The Impact: Even though Koji ultimately tracked south and crossed the coast between Ayr and Bowen on January 11, its peripheral gales battered Cairns. The data perfectly reflects this: on January 9, Cairns was hit with aggressive southeasterly squalls gusting to 70 km/h alongside 67.6 mm of rain.
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Even after Koji's remnant low moved inland, the trailing monsoon trough kept Cairns soaked, culminating in the aforementioned 108.6 mm downpour on January 18.
February 2026: A Surprising Lull
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Total Rainfall: 319.6 mm (Below Average)
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Highest Temperature: 34.8°C (Feb 13)
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Significant Events: In a typical year, February is the wettest month for Cairns (averaging ~437 mm). However, 2026 saw a break in the monsoon. While we still received frequent showers, there were extended periods of sunshine and oppressive heat. The heaviest rainfall event of the month was a 65.6 mm downpour on February 19th, but overall, the month provided a chance for the ground to dry out slightly before the March deluge.
March 2026: The Mid-March Deluge
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Total Rainfall: 602.4 mm (Well Above Average)
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Highest Temperature: 33.0°C (Mar 10)
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Significant Events: March was the undisputed heavyweight of the season. A major, slow-moving weather system (likely a deep tropical low embedded in the monsoon trough) stalled over the Wet Tropics mid-month. Over a brutal four-day period (March 14-17), Cairns was absolutely drenched. The peak occurred on Sunday, March 15, which recorded an immense 193.4 mm of rain. This event caused significant river rises in the Barron and Mulgrave catchments. Strong southeasterly winds also hit 67 km/h on March 5th, making it a highly active month meteorologically.
March 2026: The Impact of Severe Cyclone Narelle March was the absolute heavyweight of the season.
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The Pre-cursor Low: Before Narelle was officially named, it began as a stationary, heavily moisture-laden tropical low parked over the Wet Tropics. This stationary low caused the catastrophic flooding mid-month, dumping an unbelievable 193.4 mm on Cairns on March 15 alone.
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The Cyclone: The system officially became Cyclone Narelle in the Coral Sea on March 17. It rapidly intensified into a beast of a storm, hitting the Far North Queensland coast on March 20 as a powerful Category 4 system. The data shows Cairns getting only minimal direct impacts on March 20 with 38.6 mm of rain and strong southeasterly wind gusts.
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Note on Narelle: Narelle was highly unusual. After wrecking Far North QLD, it reformed in the Gulf, slammed the NT (Top End), and then re-intensified again to hit Western Australia, making it a rare "triple-impact" cyclone.
April 2026: The Tail End
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Total Rainfall: 190.6 mm (Near Average)
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Highest Temperature: 31.5°C (Apr 11)
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Significant Events: April signaled the transition into the dry season. Rainfall returned to normal levels, mostly manifesting as coastal showers driven by the strengthening Southeast Trade Winds. Strong gusts of up to 63 km/h on April 4th and 61 km/h on April 14th marked the establishment of the winter weather pattern. As always the early Winter period for this region tends to manifest lots of drizzle days and not many fine and sunny ones.
6 to 12-Month Outlook: Preparing for a Strong El Niño
As we look toward the second half of 2026 and into early 2027, global meteorological agencies (including the BOM, NOAA, and international climate models) are in strong agreement: An El Niño is forming, and it is likely to be very strong.
For most of Australia, the phrase "Strong El Niño" immediately sparks fears of severe drought, bushfires, and relentless heat. However, the Wet Tropics and the Northeast Coast behave quite differently from the rest of the continent.
If you are a Cairns local or agricultural stakeholder, here is what you actually need to know about the next 6-12 months:
Winter & Spring (June to November 2026) - The 'Dry' Season
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Expectation: Near-Normal to Potentially Higher Rainfall (Coastal Showers)
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The Science: While El Niño starves inland and southern Australia of winter rain by pushing weather systems south, its effect on the Wet Tropics during the dry season is completely different. During El Niño, the Southeast Trade Winds often blow stronger and more persistently across the Coral Sea. As these moist trade winds hit our coastal mountains (the Great Dividing Range and Bellenden Ker), they are forced upward, causing orographic rainfall.
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What this means: Do not expect a bone-dry winter/spring. Cairns and the Cassowary Coast are highly likely to see near-normal or even slightly above-average coastal shower activity through Winter and Spring, keeping the coastal strip relatively green, while the rest of Australia struggles.
Summer (December 2026 to April 2027) - The Next Wet Season
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Expectation: Below-Average Rainfall and Delayed Monsoon
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The Science: This is where the El Niño will show its teeth for Cairns. A strong El Niño shifts the warmest equatorial waters—and consequently, the deepest tropical moisture and convection—away from Australia and toward the Central/Eastern Pacific.
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What this means:
1. Late Start: The onset of the 2026/2027 monsoon is likely to be significantly delayed, potentially not arriving until late January or February.
2. Lower Overall Totals: Total rainfall for the next wet season is highly likely to be below average.
3. Fewer Cyclones: Historically, strong El Niño years produce fewer tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea region.
4. Heatwaves: With less cloud cover and a delayed monsoon, prepare for a higher number of extreme heat days and prolonged, oppressive heatwaves between November 2026 and January 2027.
The Bottom Line: Don't put the umbrella away just yet for winter, as the trade winds will keep the showers coming albeit isolated and generally light. However, water conservation and heat preparation will be vital as we head into the late months of 2026 and summer of 2027.
THE BEST HOLIDAY MONTHS IN CAIRNS?
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Based on the climate data, historical averages, and the strong El Niño trend forming for the latter half of 2026 and into 2027, the optimal window for a Cairns holiday is sharply defined. If you want to avoid sweltering humidity and oppressive heat, you need to time your trip carefully.
Here is the breakdown of the best (and worst) months to visit in the coming season.
The Prime Window: July, August, and September 2026
These three months are undeniably the best time to visit Cairns this coming season. Here is why:
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Comfortable Temperatures: During these months, the daytime highs hover around a very comfortable 26°C to 28°C, with overnight minimums dropping to a pleasant 17°C to 19°C. You can actually sleep without the air conditioner running on full blast.
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Low Humidity: The oppressive, heavy air of the wet season is gone, replaced by crisp, mostly dry Southeast Trade Winds.
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El Niño Advantage: As we discussed, El Niño often delays the monsoon and increases heatwaves later in the year. By visiting in July, August, or September, you entirely bypass the severe heat that is expected to build up by October and November.
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Marine Conditions: This window is outside the peak marine stinger season (which typically runs November to May), making swimming and Great Barrier Reef tours much more relaxed. The water clarity for snorkeling and diving is generally at its peak during these drier months.
The "Shoulder" Months: June and October 2026
These months are decent options, but come with a few caveats:
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June 2026: Still a great time to visit, but as the Trade Winds fully establish themselves, it can sometimes be a bit breezy with consistent passing coastal showers (orographic rain).
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October 2026: This is the start of the "Build-up." Given the looming El Niño, October is likely to be significantly hotter and drier than average. If you enjoy 30°C+ heat and don't mind the rising humidity, it's fine, but it will be noticeably less comfortable than August and even September.
The "Avoid" Window: November 2026 through March 2027
Unless you specifically want to experience extreme tropical weather, this block should be avoided for a standard holiday this coming season.
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The Searing Heat: November and December 2026 are expected to be brutally hot. With El Niño delaying the cooling monsoon rains, the region will bake under high temperatures and extreme humidity.
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The Wet (When it Arrives): Even with below-average rainfall expected overall, January through March will still bring heavy tropical downpours, high humidity, and the ever-present risk of tropical lows.
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Stinger Season: The marine stingers (Box Jellyfish and Irukandji) will be in full force, meaning swimming at the beaches requires stinger suits or sticking to enclosed nets.
To summarize: Lock in your plans for August or September for the best balance of clear skies, comfortable warmth, and great reef conditions.
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