Weather IQ - Launches AI Model Comparator Page for Eye Pro and Eye Lite Users

Author: Chris Nitsopoulos

Posted on: Friday, January 19th, 2024, 7:29:35 PM

With AI modelling being very consistent through Jasper and seemingly much more consistent through the upcoming Kirrily (especially FuXi and Pangu) we thought it's high time our members got to see the AI modelling in an easy to use comparitive tool all on the one page. Just as an example, the worst AI model is currently ranked alongside the BEST OG model (the ECMWF) and we haven't included the worst AI model in our models list here. So every single AI model you see on this page has beaten the best NWP models that we currently use on more than 50% and in FuXi/Graphcast cases (more than 90%) of the time. So it goes without saying I really wanted to get my hands on these tools and find a way to let you all in on these semi secret AI models that will be the future of weather forecasting, as soon as possible. 

Thanks to the ECMWF and their open data policy for these models and their graphics we have added them to the website for our Eyewall Pro and even extended access to our Eyewall Lite subscribers while the models remain in evaluation mode - eventually we will look to integrate these models into the Weather Centre as they move into operational mode down the track (likely 12+ months away). 

So How can I access AI Models? 

1 - You must be a Stripe billing User, there is really no way around this - almost all the new and upcoming features on our website (competitions, forums/community site) will require the Stripe database to function for you and for us. So if you're an old OCC member who is on Paypal billing, we can easily migrate you to Stripe at absolutely no charge or inconvenience to you - all you have to do is send us an email to support@weatheriq.com.au and just say "Hey guys, I'd like to go from Paypal to Stripe." and within a few hours, like magic we will get that done for you and you won't even know we did anything - other than us confirming it via email. It's literally that easy. But do not CANCEL your Paypal billing yourselves or you won't be able to access anything for the time it takes us to migrate your account, let us cancel Paypal billing for you. 

2 - On the "Eyewall" Menu, find "AI Weather Charts"

It's literally that easy. Once you open that page you will be able to compare the AI models for rainfall (2 of the 4 are calculating rainfall), Temperature/surface winds (4 of 4 models) and 500hPa winds (4 of 4 models). You will notice a slider tool at the top of the page and as you advance the slider tool all the images update at the same time so you can easily compare models at every time step. 

We also realised "Hey, sometimes folks will want to compare zoomed models because the graphics might be a little small." So, no worries we've found a way to let you do that too. Simply click on the model graphic where you want to zoom and bam like magic (with a bit of Dominic's magic coding skills) you can now see the zoomed in version of the model graphics. The cool thing about this is that the models stay zoomed in while you work through the slide show. To unzoom the model back to its original size, just click the image again. Pretty damn cool hey. Check this out: 

AI Models update at approx 5:10AM for the 12z run and 5:10PM for the 00z run on our website (QLD times) and if you are still seeing an old version after this time, simply refresh/reload your page.

Some Caveats when using these EXPERIMENTAL MODELS
While their trials have been a resounding success so far, we can make no guarantee their accuracy will continue in the future (we are very hopeful and confident they will of course otherwise they wouldn't be on this site) Here are some things you need to know: 

1 - Their ability is limited by their current grid sizing - these experimental models are using a very coarse grid 0.25 degrees by 0.25 degrees roughtly a resolution of 20km - that makes them lower resolution than all of our current NWP models. But in my mind that makes their accuracy so far even more stunning. Imagine what these things will be like when they're able to run at a full resolution.

2 - Their abilities for rainfall forecasting have not been verified yet. The coarse resolution is also unlikely to pick up any local heavy falls of rain or topographically enhanced rainfall i.e. those heavy rains we see around SEQ or NEQ ranges. 

3 - Their coarse resolutions will not allow accurate modelling of a TC's intensity (track is good, intensity no good) - do not use these models for TC intensity forecasting.  

We'll add to this list as we figure out more model limitations. 

The current order of accuracy of these models from least accurate to most accurate is as follows - bearing in mind that ALL of them are better/more accurate so far in trials than anything that we have now in traditional NWP modelling (Pangu (least still good) - ECMWF AIFS - GraphCast - FuXi (amazing at days 5+))

You can find out more about these models here: 
ECMWF AIFS Model details 
Pangu Weather Model details
GraphCast Model details
FuXi Model details

A big thank you to both the ECMWF for providing open source access to these models while they are 'in testing' and for Dominic our new website admin for being able to drop everything (Dom also has a full time job by the way) and get these charts coded for us in time to use for TC Kirrily.